The jobs report continues a string of better than expected economic data. 638k new jobs were reported for October while only 580k were expected. The unemployment “beat” was even better, with a rate of 6.9% versus an expectation of 7.6%. Americans continue to find creative ways to do business while COVID-19 fatigue cause analysts to be steadfastly pessimistic. However, without further stimulus from Congress and record-breaking daily cases of COVID-19, the ”better than expected” economic data days may be over until a vaccine becomes widely distributed.

Jobs growth will likely slow significantly over the next couple of months as people once again become more hesitant to be out in public and segments of the economy are forced to effectively shut down again. It will appear to be the darkest just before the dawn as the third wave in the U.S. peaks in early December with some really frightening number of daily cases just as front line medical workers begin to receive a vaccine. As a result, while we see a pause in economic growth in the near term, we still expect to see a very strong rebound in 2021.

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Bryce Doty is a Senior Vice President with Sit Fixed Income and Senior Portfolio Manager of the taxable bond portfolios for the firm’s custom separately-managed accounts, private investment funds, and mutual funds. Bryce oversees the firm’s team of taxable bond managers, analysts, and traders.