I would think most bond investors see treasuries as in a bubble. Even the lowest inflation predictions are higher than the current 1.28% yield on the 10-year maturity U.S. Treasury, and yet, the bubble is likely to persist until both 1) the Fed stops injecting $120 billion into the financial system and 2) the savings… Read more »
Only 266,000 jobs were created last month instead of the million expected for the second largest miss in history (March 2020 being the worst). The unemployment rate actually rose from 6.0% to 6.1% instead of declining to 5.8% as expected. However, labor force participation inched up from 61.5% to 61.7% and the underemployment rate actually… Read more »
We are transitioning from “expectations” of a strong economic impact from the combinations of a high savings rate and pent up consumer demand to the incredible reality of just how powerful the rebound is. Given the significant rebound in retail sales, it makes sense that the Empire Manufacturing and Philly Fed Business Outlook crushed the… Read more »
The jobs report continues a string of better than expected economic data. 638k new jobs were reported for October while only 580k were expected. The unemployment “beat” was even better, with a rate of 6.9% versus an expectation of 7.6%. Americans continue to find creative ways to do business while COVID-19 fatigue cause analysts to… Read more »
The mind boggling loss of jobs last month was not caused by an economy out over its skis in need of a correction, but is a measure of the country’s resolve to meaningfully damage the rapid spread of COVID-19. More job losses are more lives saved. Losing 20 million jobs in a month is a… Read more »
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