Tag: VALT

Inflation and the Fed

The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place.  They are responsible for maintaining stable prices and yet are somewhat powerless to affect the supply chain and labor shortage-induced inflation pressures with monetary policy.  While it could certainly be argued that printing $120 billion a month with inflation pressures mounting is akin to… Read more »

Treasuries in a ‘Bubble’

I would think most bond investors see treasuries as in a bubble. Even the lowest inflation predictions are higher than the current 1.28% yield on the 10-year maturity U.S. Treasury, and yet, the bubble is likely to persist until both 1) the Fed stops injecting $120 billion into the financial system and 2) the savings… Read more »

Huge Miss on Jobs

Only 266,000 jobs were created last month instead of the million expected for the second largest miss in history (March 2020 being the worst). The unemployment rate actually rose from 6.0% to 6.1% instead of declining to 5.8% as expected. However, labor force participation inched up from 61.5% to 61.7% and the underemployment rate actually… Read more »

Comments on Today’s Economic Data

We are transitioning from “expectations” of a strong economic impact from the combinations of a high savings rate and pent up consumer demand to the incredible reality of just how powerful the rebound is. Given the significant rebound in retail sales, it makes sense that the Empire Manufacturing and Philly Fed Business Outlook crushed the… Read more »

Vaccines and the Fed

We expect the Federal Reserve to stay very dovish. Despite the promise of a better tomorrow with vaccines rapidly being deployed across the country, the Fed will continue to do everything possible to support financial markets. We expect them to err on the side of waiting too long to pull back on bond purchases and… Read more »

Employment Stalls

Spreading shutdowns following the spreading virus caused employment gains to take a pause. While normally 245,000 jobs in November would be something to cheer about, expectations were for 460,000 jobs making today’s data a disappointment. Next month we could have job losses as shutdowns and growing fatalities continue to take its toll on the country…. Read more »

COVID-19 Fatigue Cause Analysts to Be Steadfastly Pessimistic

The jobs report continues a string of better than expected economic data. 638k new jobs were reported for October while only 580k were expected. The unemployment “beat” was even better, with a rate of 6.9% versus an expectation of 7.6%. Americans continue to find creative ways to do business while COVID-19 fatigue cause analysts to… Read more »

More Job Losses Are More Lives Saved

The mind boggling loss of jobs last month was not caused by an economy out over its skis in need of a correction, but is a measure of the country’s resolve to meaningfully damage the rapid spread of COVID-19. More job losses are more lives saved. Losing 20 million jobs in a month is a… Read more »