Travel Sector's "Shot in the Arm"

The travel sector, largely decimated in 2020 by the global pandemic, has gotten a proverbial “shot in the arm” so far in 2021 resulting from widespread COVID vaccinations. As of April 18th of this year, over half (50.4%) of the U.S. adult population had received at least one dose of a vaccine with close to one-third (32.5%) of the same population being fully inoculated.¹ The rise in vaccinations appears to be in line with a variety of positive leading indicators for the travel industry.

On the ground: Ride sharing companies Lyft and Uber are seeing sharp upticks in volume. Lyft saw its highest ridership for the week ending February 28th since March 2020² and, more recently, Uber saw its highest monthly gross bookings in company history for the month ending March 31st.³ Both companies have since introduced new driver incentives to ramp up supply in order to meet expected demand.⁴ Airbnb is seeking millions of more hosts to support an anticipated supply/demand imbalance for future travelers.⁵ “… we think there’s going to be a travel rebound coming that’s unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” says Airbnb CEO, Brian Chesky.

In the air: TSA checkpoint data, which measures the amount of passengers traveling through TSA checkpoints on a daily basis, have shown passengers increasing at a rate of 5% on a weekly basis⁶ and now hover between 49% and 69% of pre-pandemic (2019) passenger levels for the period April 1st – April 18th.⁷ Major airlines including (but limited to) United, JetBlue, Spirit, and American have each announced plans to hire new staff in order to increase capacity come summer time.⁸ According to an Expedia Group study, travelers are turning to online travel agents for trip planning nearly 25% more than they were pre-pandemic to assist in navigating the tricky landscape that pandemic traveling entails as well as for price comparison and itinerary formation.⁹

Looking ahead, many expect a years-long travel boom to result from pandemic related measures. Regional and domestic travel will likely be the quickest to rebound while the return to international and business travel will have a slower, incremental rollout. According to a Trip.com SEC filing, the global travel market is expected to increase from $4.7 trillion by the end of 2021 to $7.1 trillion by the end of 2025, growing at a CAGR of 10.6% for the period.¹⁰

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